Best NRFI Bets Today: Negative Regression Looms Large Over the Phillies' Offense

With Andrew Abbott on the mound, negative regression looms large over the Philadelphia Phillies' star-studded offense as the Cincinnati Reds pitcher excels at avoiding contact. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers as Ryne Nelson has the opportunity to round back into form against an offense who struggles with getting on base.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds - Taijuan Walker vs. Andrew Abbott (6:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-105) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

Even though the Cincinnati Reds have struggled to close the gap between them and Milwaukee for first in the NL Central division standings, it has not been at the fault of their pitching staff as their rotation ranks above league average in Total Pitching ERA. Andrew Abbott has played a major role in their success as the Reds pitcher is currently averaging an ERA of 2.34, a WHIP of 1.127, and a FIP of 3.79.

While a matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies offense seems daunting on paper, Abbott gets the benefit of being surrounded by a back end who excels in coverage as the Reds' defense ranks top-3 in Defensive Efficiency. This helps reduce the amount of contact variance in Abbott’s starts which increases his chances of getting off to a hot start.

As for Taijuan Walker, the Phillies pitcher draws a more favorable matchup as he faces off against a Reds offense who ranks below league average in Contact Rate and in Slugger Percentage. With Walker averaging an ERA of 3.53 and less than one Hit Allowed per Inning Pitched, expect the Reds to continue to struggle with getting into scoring position and be held scoreless in the first inning of their contest.

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers - Ryne Nelson vs. Nathan Eovaldi (8:05 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-135) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

While the race for the AL Cy Young has been labeled as a battle between Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet, the Texas Rangers' Nathan Eovaldi has managed to remain in contention as he continues to hover near the top of the oddsboard for the award. His marks on the mound rivals the previously mentioned duo as Eovaldi is currently averaging an ERA of 1.38 and a WHIP of 0.838.

Even with the Arizona Diamondbacks excelling at making contact and getting on base at a high rate, Eovaldi has shown he can neutralize any offense with his own individual production as his FIP of 2.37 indicates. Especially when he is surrounded by the best back end in the league as the Rangers' defense ranks first overall in Defensive Efficiency and in Fielding Percentage.

On the other side of the field, Ryne Nelson has a great opportunity to round back into form as he faces off against a Rangers offense who ranks below league average in Contact Rate, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage. Their struggles on offense will be on full display against Nelson as the Diamondbacks pitcher is averaging an ERA of 3.20 and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels - Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Jose Soriano - With Jose Soriano averaging an ERA of 4.01 and a WHIP of 1.401, expect the Los Angeles Dodgers' offense to open up the scoring early on in their contest against the Angels as the reigning World Series champions rank top-5 in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage.

• Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees - Zebby Matthews vs. Will Warren - The New York Yankees have a great opportunity to halt their regression on offense as they are set to face off against the Minnesota Twins Zebby Matthews who is averaging an ERA of 5.17 and more than one Hit Allowed per Inning Pitched while surrounded by a defense who ranks 27th overall in Defensive Efficiency.

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