Best NRFI Bets Today: The Best Pitcher In Baseball Takes The Mound On Thursday

Tarik Skubal has solidified himself as the AL Cy Young winner in 2025 and he will start for Detroit on Thursday. The NRFI in this game is one of two on my card.

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Guardians vs. Tigers - Tanner Bibee vs. Tarik Skubal (1:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-145) at Hard Rock Sportsbook

Tarik Skubal has been exceptional throughout his career, and he continues to improve. He will start against Tanner Bibee and the Guardians on Thursday.

This is a very important series as both clubs are at the top in the AL Central. Detroit has a 5.5 game lead over Cleveland, so this matchup should be fun.

Skubal enters this contest with a record of 13-5 and a 2.26 ERA. He has incredible strikeout numbers, fanning 224 batters in 183.1 innings.

Skubal is coming off one of his worst starts of the season against Miami in which he allowed four runs in 3.1 innings. This doesn’t happen very often and I expect a bounce back performance.

Bibee comes in with a 4.44 ERA, but he has been dominating hitters in his last two starts. He has pitched 15.2 innings allowing two runs in this span, including a nine-inning shutout.

I like to focus on pitchers that have been hot when taking NRFI bets and that’s why I like Bibee in this spot. Detroit’s offense has cooled down as they are hitting .249 as a club, and I think Bibee will find success in this matchup.

With a pitcher’s duel like Skubal vs Bibee, I think the hitters will have a rough day at the plate, which will help us cash the NRFI.

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Mariners vs. Royals - Luis Castillo vs. Stephen Kolek (2:10 PM EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-105) at Hard Rock Sportsbook

The second NRFI wager I’m focusing on features the Mariners and Royals. Seattle currently leads the AL West division, while Kansas CIty is seven games back from a Wild Card position.

The Mariners will start Luis Castillo against Stephen Kolek and the Royals. This pitching matchup intrigues me because of Castillo’s strikeout ability and Kolek’s recent consistency.

Castillo enters this contest with a record of 9-8 and a 3.76 ERA. In his last two starts he has only allowed one run in each game, and we’re going to need him to repeat this type of performance.

In 167.1 innings, Castillo has struck out 149 batters and has a 1.25 WHIP. I expect him to stay ahead of hitters and have a clean first inning.

Kolek is 5-5 with a 3.71 ERA, but he has been excellent in his last two starts. In this span he has pitched 13.2 innings allowing just three runs on nine hits.

Kolek does a terrific job of limiting walks and keeping hitters off-balance. He also doesn’t allow too many home runs which are NRFI killers.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Padres vs. Mets - Randy Vasquez vs. Jonah Tong: In 11.2 innings, Tong has a 8.49 ERA and I think the Padres will take advantage of this flaw. Both offenses rank in the top half of the league in team batting average. 

• Marlins vs. Rockies - Sandy Alcantara vs. Tanner Gordon: Alcantara has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball as he is 9-12 with a 5.53 ERA in 2025. Gordon’s 6.14 ERA isn’t much better so I expect the offenses to be ready to play.

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