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Image for Ryan Bristlon Ryan Bristlon - Updated October 14, 2022

UFC 264: Poirier vs McGregor 3 Predictions, Betting Odds & Picks

Poirier Vs Mcgregor 3 Predictions
  • UFC 264 will take place in front of a sold-out crowd at the T-Mobile Arena this Saturday in an event headlined by the rubber match between lightweights Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor
  • The co-main event sees two former title challengers go toe-to-toe as top-5 welterweight Gilbert Burns and Stephen Thompson square off Saturday night
  • Fan-favorite Sean O’Malley kicks off the main card against last-minute replacement opponent Kris Moutinho, who stands as the biggest betting underdog on the card

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UFC 265: Poirier vs McGregor 3 Odds

The odds for this match are provided by William Hill sportsbook. Click on the odds below to head to William Hill and place a bet.

Fighter Odds
Dustin Poirier -125
Conor McGregor +105
Fighter Odds
Gilbert Burns +145
Stephen Thompson -170
Fighter Odds
Tai Tuivasa -135
Greg Hardy +115
Fighter Odds
Irene Aldana -120
Yana Kunitskaya +100
Fighter Odds
Sean O’Malley -800
Kris Moutinho +550

UFC 264: Poirier vs McGregor 3 Predictions & Picks

Dustin Poirier vs Conor McGregor – Lightweight Division

Dustin Poirier (-125)

Gilbert Burns vs Stephen Thompson – Welterweight Division

Stephen Thomspon (-170)

Tai Tuivasa vs Greg Hardy – Heavyweight Division

Greg Hardy (+115)

Irene Aldana vs Yana Kunitskaya – Women’s Bantamweight Division

Yana Kunitskaya (+100)

Sean O’Malley vs Kris Moutinho – Bantamweight Division

Sean O’Malley (-800)

How to Watch UFC 264: Poirier vs McGregor 3

Poirier vs McGregor 3 Information
Event UFC 264: Poirier vs McGregor 3
Location T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, Nevada
Time Saturday, July 10, 10 PM EST
How to watch UFC Fight Pass, ESPN+, pay-per-view

Dustin Poirier vs Conor McGregor – Lightweight Division

Dustin Poirier TALE OF THE TAPE Conor McGregor
32 Age 32
5 ft. 9 in. Height 5 ft. 9 in.
72 in. Reach 74 in.
27-6, 1 no-contest Record 22-5

Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier

One can’t deny Dustin Poirier’s status as one of the greatest fighters on the planet. Excluding his loss to the greatest lightweight of all time Khabib Nurmagoemedov, Poirier has not lost a fight since 2016.

Since his loss in 2016, Poirier has defeated the likes of former lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez, former interim champion Justin Gaethje, and former featherweight champion Max Holloway – with that win earning Poirier an interim lightweight title for himself.

After coming up short against Nurmagomedov at UFC 242 in 2019, Poirier bounced back with a fight of the night unanimous decision performance over Dan Hooker.

Poirier’s most recent bout, of course, occurred this past January against the man he faces this Saturday: Conor McGregor.

The two first fought in 2014 when both were in the featherweight division. McGregor won the first bout via first-round TKO. The rematch years later would be quite a different story, however, as Dustin Poirier chipped away at the former double-champ and secured a TKO victory in the second round, earning him a performance bonus.

Following the rematch, the two fighters almost immediately began talking of a trilogy fight and here we are just six months later.

Born in Louisiana, Poirier is a long-time student of Florida‘s American Top Team gym. Fighting since 2009, Poirier holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Tim Credeur.

Poirier is ranked as the number-one lightweight contender in the world and also ranks as the sixth-best pound-for-pound men’s fighter on the UFC roster.

He has seven more fights of experience than his opponent despite being the same age. However, Poirier will be at a two-inch reach disadvantage Saturday night.

“The Notorious” Conor McGregor

This Saturday night will mark Conor McGregor’s fastest turnaround between fights since he fought Nate Diaz and Eddie Alvarez within three months of each other back in 2016.

Since capturing the lightweight title in 2016, McGregor has gone on to be stripped of both the lightweight and featherweight titles, box Floyd Mayweather, set a PPV record with his losing effort against Khabib, get suspended from the UFC, and return two years later to defeat Donald Cerrone in 40-seconds.

McGregor had another full year on the sidelines between the Cerrone fight and Poirier rematch.

Although we saw a more jovial version of McGregor during the build-up to the Poirier rematch, some bad blood seemed to come out following the bout. So far the two have remained mostly silent heading into the trilogy fight.

McGregor trains out of his home country of Ireland with the SBG Ireland team. His coaching staff, headed by John Kavanagh, includes the likes of boxing coach Owen Roddy and wrestling coach Sergey Pikulskiy.

Known mostly for his left-hand power and fight IQ, McGregor holds the rank of brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu as well.

He has been fighting professionally since 2008, is the first man in the UFC to hold two titles at the same time, and is currently ranked as the fifth-best lightweight in the UFC division.

He has headlined five of the six highest-grossing pay-per-view cards in UFC history.

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Gilbert Burns vs Stephen Thompson – Welterweight Division

Gilbert Burns TALE OF THE TAPE Stephen Thompson
34 Age 38
5 ft. 10 in. Height 6 ft.
71 in. Reach 75 in.
19-4 Record 16-4-1

Gilbert “Durinho” Burns

From late 2018 to mid-2020, Gilbert Burns was on one of the best runs of any UFC fighter on the roster.

Following back-to-back wins in the lightweight division, Burns made the move to welterweight in August 2019 and took on Alexey Kuchenko, whom he defeated via unanimous decision.

He has remained in the welterweight division ever since, following his Kuchenko win with another decision win over Gunnar Nelson. He then earned two more huge wins and back-to-back performance bonuses when he defeated UFC legend Demian Maia via TKO and former UFC welterweight champion Tyron Woodley in a very one-sided decision victory.

The four-fight welterweight winning streak (and six fights straight overall) earned Gilbert Burns his first shot at UFC gold when he took on training partner and current UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman this past February at UFC 258.

After knocking down the champion in the first round, Burns would ultimately fall to Usman in the third round, losing the fight by TKO.

The Brazilian fighter trains in the United States, spending time with both the Combat Club and Sanford MMA with coaches Henri Hooft and Neil Melanson.

Burns is one of the most gifted grapplers in the UFC, holding a second-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Rafel Barros. He has gold medals in the sport at both the World Championships and World Cup.

Fighting since 2012, Burns is currently ranked as the second-best welterweight in the division.

He is four years younger than his opponent.

Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson

Like Gilbert Burns, Stephen Thompson is a former UFC welterweight title challenger.

He earned his first shot at gold against former champ Tyron Woodley at UFC 205, where the two fought to a majority draw. They rematched immediately in 2017 at UFC 209 and Thompson would be defeated via majority decision in what was named fight of the night.

Thompson bounced back from the loss with a unanimous decision win over Jorge Masvidal but then went on to lose two fights in a row: a decision loss to Darren Till and a knockout loss to Anthony Pettis.

“Wonderboy” seems to have found his footing once again in the division lately as he is now riding a two-fight winning streak. He defeated Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal – both by unanimous decision and both fights earning him performance bonuses.

This will be Thompson’s first fight of 2021.

The karate specialist holds a fifth-degree black belt in Kempo, a first-degree black belt in jujutsu, and a black belt in American kickboxing. He has an undefeated 58-0 kickboxing record. This is set up to be a classic striker-versus-grappler matchup between Thompson and Burns.

Thompson does also hold a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

Thompson trains with Pitch Black MMA as well as with the Serra-Longo Fight Team with coaches Ray Longo and Carlos Machado.

Fighting since 2010, Thompson is ranked fourth-overall in the welterweight division. He will enter the octagon Saturday night with a four-inch reach advantage.

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Tai Tuivasa vs Greg Hardy – Heavyweight Division

Tai Tuivasa TALE OF THE TAPE Greg Hardy
28 Age 32
6 ft. 2 in. Height 6 ft. 5 in.
75 in. Reach 80 in.
11-3 Record 7-3, 1 no-contest

Tai “Bam Bam” Tuivasa

After starting his UFC career with three straight wins, Tai Tuivasa eventually hit a wall, dropping his next three fights in a row.

However “Bam Bam” seems to have rebounded lately. He snapped his losing streak last October at UFC 254 with a knockout win over Stefan Struve in the first round.

He followed that performance, most recently, with a first-round TKO victory over Harry Hunsucker this past March.

The Australian native has been fighting since 2012 and is currently training with both Tiger Muay Thai and the TK MMA & Fitness teams.

Tuivasa also holds a 5-2 professional boxing record and a 14-2 kickboxing record. He will be at significant physical disadvantages in this matchup but is four years younger than his opponent.

Greg “Prince of War” Hardy

It’s been an up and down journey for Greg Hardy since he joined the UFC. Since losing his debut fight due to disqualification, Hardy now has a UFC record of 4-3 with one no-contest.

Hardy had a good 2020 year going as he put together back-to-back wins over Yorgan de Castro (via unanimous decision) and Maurice Greene (via second-round TKO).

However, his year ended with a loss as he would lose his most recent bout, which took place last December, to Marcin Tybura via second-round TKO. He has not stepped into the octagon since.

The former NFL player has spent much of his MMA career training out of Florida with American Top Team under coaches Din Thomas and Rashad Evans. He has been fighting professionally since 2017.

Hardy will enter the octagon Saturday night with a three-inch height advantage as well as an impressive five-inch reach advantage over Tuivasa.

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Irene Aldana vs Yana Kunitskaya – Women’s Bantamweight Division

Irene Aldana TALE OF THE TAPE Yana Kunitskaya
33 Age 31
5 ft. 9 in. Height 5 ft. 8 in.
69 in. Reach 68.5 in.
12-6 Record 14-5, 1 no-contest

Irene “Robles” Aldana

Following back-to-back wins that included a decision over Vanessa Melo and a performance of the night knockout of Ketlen Vieira, Irene Aldana was put up against the former women’s bantamweight champion Holly Holm.

The two fought to a decision last October with Holm coming out as the victor. Aldana hasn’t fought since that loss and is 5-2 over her last seven Octagon appearances.

Born in Mexico, Aldanam trains out of Guadalajara with the Lobo Gym – whom she’s been with since 2011.

She has been fighting professionally since 2012 and is currently ranked as the fourth-best women’s bantamweight in the division.

On Saturday night she will have a one-inch height advantage over her opponent.

Yana “Foxy” Kunitskaya

A former Invicta FC bantamweight champion, Yana Kunitskaya has gone 4-1 over her last five fights.

She defeated Lina Lansberg and Marion Reneau in back-to-back fights before losing via TKO to Aspen Ladd in late 2019.

She recovered from that fight, however, winning her next two fights in a row over Julija Stoliarenko and, most recently, Ketlen Vieira.

Born in Russia, the taekwondo expert is mostly known for her striking abilities in the cage. She currently trains with the Jackson Wink MMA Academy.

She is currently ranked just behind her opponent in the division at number five.

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Sean O’Malley vs Kris Moutinho – Bantamweight Division

Sean O’Malley TALE OF THE TAPE Kris Moutinho
26 Age 28
5 ft. 11 in. Height 5 ft. 7 in.
72 in. Reach 70 in.
13-1 Record 9-4

“Sugar” Sean O’Malley

Originally slated to take on Louis Smolka, Sean O’Malley now finds himself with a new opponent after Smolka had to withdraw from Saturday night’s fight due to suffering from a staph infection.

After impressing on the Dana White contender Series back in 2017, Sean O’Malley signed with the UFC as an 8-0 fighter. He went on to win his first four straight fights for the promotion, earning three performance bonuses during that time.

O’Malley would suffer his first professional loss at UFC 252 against Marlon Vera. O’Malley seemingly injured his foot or ankle during the first round and the fight was ended by Vera via TKO.

O’Malley’s most recent appearance in the octagon took place this past March at UFC 260. He took on Thomas Almeida and knocked him out in the third round. He was awarded another performance bonus for the effort.

Born in Montana, O’Malley trains out of Arizona with Sanabul and the MMA Lab with coaches John Crouch and Tim Welch. Mostly known for his striking, he also holds a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Augusto Mendes.

He has been fighting since 2013 and is currently unranked in the bantamweight division.

O’Malley will enter the cage Saturday night with a four-inch height and two-inch reach advantage over his opponent.

Kris Moutinho

Let’s be honest – Saturday could be a long (or possibly very short) night for Kris Moutinho, who is stepping in on short notice to take on top bantamweight contender Sean O’Malley. Not only is he going up against one of the toughest in the division, this fight will also be Moutinho’s UFC debut.

Prior to signing on to this fight, Moutinho fought for CES and CFFC. He is currently riding a two-fight winning streak but is just 2-2 over his last four professional fights.

The American fighter trains out of Milford, Massachusetts with the Regiment Training Center. He has been fighting professionally since 2016.

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Ryan Bristlon

415 Articles

Ryan Bristlon is a Canadian writer currently residing in Hamilton, Ontario. He studied print and broadcast journalism at Humber College and has been a lifelong fan of the sport of hockey and the NHL.

Email: [email protected]

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