Valley View Stakes Predictions, Top Picks, Odds (Keeneland)
Valley View Stakes Odds and Post Position
Check out our predictions and odds for the 2021 Valley View Stakes at Keeneland!
|1||CORE VALUES||15/1 |
|R Bejarano||V Oliver|
|J Talamo||B Cox|
|3||CRAZY BEAUTIFUL||9/2 |
|B Hernandez Jr||K McPeek|
|4||TOBYS HEART||8/1 |
|J Rosario||B Lynch|
|C J Hernandez||G Arnold II|
|C Lanerie||K McPeek|
|F Geroux||B Cox|
|8||BREAKER OF CHAINS||10/1 |
|T Gaffalione||G Weaver|
|9||ARM CANDY||20/1 |
|R Santana Jr||S Asmussen|
|10||OYSTER BOX||12/1 |
|J Graham||G Motion|
|11||LADY SPEIGHTSPEARE||5/1 |
|E Wilson||R Attfield|
|J Leparoux||J P O’Brien|
|J Ortiz||B Walsh|
|14||GAM’S MISSION||8/1 |
|A Beschizza||C DeVaux|
|15||AE – PRINCESS THEOREM||30/1 |
|J Ortiz||B Walsh|
|16||AE – WAIT FOR NAIROBI||50/1 |
|E Morales||R Hernandez|
Best Bets for the Valley View Stakes
Here are my plays ($56 in total)
$20 Win – Breaker of Chains = $20
$2 Exacta box – Breaker of Chains, Queenship and Lady Speightspeare = $12
$2 Exacta box – Breaker of Chains, Queenship and Gam’s Mission = $12
$2 Exacta box – Breaker of Chains, Queenship and Oyster Box = $12
If you’re playing only to win, go with my top pick Breaker of Chains (10/1).
Crazy Beautiful, a three-time graded stakes winner on the dirt this year, and the undefeated Canadian, Lady Speightspeare, headline an overflowing field of 14 entered in Friday’s Grade 3 Valley View Stakes for 3-year-old fillies on the Keeneland turf.
Crazy Beautiful, trained by Kenny McPeek, has won five stakes overall, highlighted by wins in the graded Gulfstream Park Oaks, Summertime Oaks, and the Delaware Oaks. A gray daughter of Liam’s Map, she is also a winner of her only start on the turf, which came in her career debut last summer at Ellis Park.
Lady Speightspeare, meanwhile, has won all three of her starts on the turf at Woodbine. Last year, the well-bred daughter of Speightstown won the Grade 1 Natalma in her second career start. After a lengthy layoff, the filly trained by Roger Attfield made a winning return to the races in an allowance race in early September.
Besides the top two, the deep field in the 8 ½ furlong turf affair includes seven other fillies who have won stakes races on the grass. Topping the list is the three-time stakes winner Tobys Heart, who enters the Valley View off a sharp stakes victory at Kentucky Downs going 6 ½ furlongs.
Valley View Stakes Predictions
After 11 straight races on the dirt, and five stakes victories, this daughter of Liam’s Map returns to the turf for trainer Kenny McPeek. Victorious on the grass in her career debut at Ellis Park in 2020, we know she can handle the grass, but we do not know if she is as good on it as she is on the main track. Her class must be respected, but in the large and deep field, and on a turf course that will have plenty of moisture, I see this as a good spot to try to beat her as the likely favorite.
The future looks very bright for this Canadian-based, well-bred daughter of Speightstown. Undefeated in three career starts, she was talented enough to win the Grade 1 Natalma at Woodbine in her second career start. Unfortunately, it was just about a year before she made it back to the races. Even in the hands of master trainer Roger Attfield, and with a solid allowance score in her return, I am not quite sure if we will see her best on Friday. Still, she must be respected as a possible turf star.
Coming off a nice win in the Dueling Grounds Oaks, this Brad Cox-trained daughter of Pioneerof the Nile must be respected. Perhaps she liked being on the lead in a slow early pace, but still, it was a solid win on yielding turf. With rain in the area this week, she should get similar conditions on Friday. Improving in each of her three careers starts on the turf, she is an obvious threat in here, but I wonder if she will be as sharp as she needs to be coming out of the 1 5/16-mile race.
This daughter of Jack Milton has an explosive turn of foot which has carried her to four victories in eight career starts on the turf. Most recently, she rolled home to a sharp win in the Music City Stakes at Kentucky Downs. It was her third-stakes win, but they’ve all come at sprint distances. Going a mile or farther, she is 0-for-3, but the last two were both solid efforts, finishing second in the Tepin at Churchill Downs and third in the Grade 3 Lake George at Saratoga. She is certainly a threat in here, but I would like her better if this were just a bit shorter.
It’s hard to knock this daughter of Noble Mission, who has never run a bad race in six career starts. Although she has been beaten in her last two, she has been keeping top company, and actually draws into a slightly easier spot in the Valley View. Having said that, this is a tough race in its own right, and she will need to run a big race from the outside post to win it. She’s run well on turf courses with a little give to them in the past, including the Grade 3 Regret earlier this year. She is one of the ones to beat in a wide-open affair.
Breaker of Chains
Although she has raced only once in America, this daughter of Bernardini looked the part of a stakes horse, breaking her maiden with a strong late run at Kentucky Downs. Now trained by George Weaver, she is the least experienced filly in the field, having only run a total of three times. The first two came this summer in Ireland, and in both, she showed promise while finishing third and then second. Having already run well on wet turf overseas, she should be ready to run another big race on Friday in her second start in the U.S. She is the top pick in this tricky event.
As many good races as this filly has run, it’s hard to believe that she has only found the winner’s circle once in eight career starts. A daughter of Kitten’s Joy, trained by Brendan Walsh, she was beaten last time by Shantisara and Oyster Box at Arlington Park. The former is likely the best 3-year-old turf filly in the nation, but the latter is also in this race. She is one of many in this race with a chance, but until she actually wins one, I will hold off on betting her, especially with the wide draw.
This filly from Europe certainly merits serious consideration in her American debut. Trained by Joseph O’Brien, she comes from Ireland on a three-race winning streak. Only one of the wins came recently, but it was a solid victory in a listed stakes race. Moreover, if the turf is indeed wet on Friday, as expected, this Irish-bred filly should be one of the beneficiaries, twice having won on soft turf overseas. She has a big shot to keep her winning streak going in the Valley View.
Trained by Graham Motion, this daughter of Tapit has been knocking on the door of a stakes victory for some time. After winning a maiden and an allowance on the turf in her first two career races, she has rallied into contention in five consecutive stakes races without yet visiting the winner’s circle. She has kept good company and has been consistent. Either she is due, or not quite good enough. Or more likely yet, she runs another solid race, without quite getting there. I expect another good effort, but she will probably only fill out the exotics.
Another one who is experienced in stakes racing will be her seventh straight stakes race since winning nicely in her career debut last summer. A daughter of Medaglia d’Oro, she has won only of the first six, but it was a very nice win, going wire to wire over a solid field in the Tepin Stakes at Churchill Downs. Unfortunately, she hasn’t done much in her last two. She will need a bounce-back effort on Friday, but if she can find the earl lead, she is not out of it.
Trained by Vicky Oliver, she had a three-race winning streak broken last time when she struggled home in seventh behind Adventuring in the Dueling Grounds Oaks. A stakes winner at both Arlington Park and Ellis Park before that, she is eligible to improve off the last, but I do not love the fact that her one race on yielding turf was the poor one. The cut back in distance could help her, but with so many other options, she will not be on my tickets on Friday.
This daughter of Twirling Candy has won her last two races on the Keeneland turf for trainer Steve Asmussen. Both came in allowance races, though, and she has been unable to breakthrough in four previous tries against stakes companies. She likes the course, but has found a tough spot to try to win her first stakes races. One of many with attractive odds that I can’t completely eliminate, but I like others better
This gray daughter of The Factor enters the Valley View off a rallying fourth-place finish behind Tobys Heart in the Music City. Stretching out to 8 ½ furlongs looks to be in the favor of a filly who has finished first or second in five of seven tries on the grass. Still, her past performances say that she might struggle against this tough field. The second from trainer Brad Cox, she deserves to be a long shot, but if she takes to the wet turf, she is a possibility to sneak into the exotics.
The second in the race from the barn of Kenny McPeek, she also has raced much more frequently on the dirt than the grass. All four of her wins, including a pair of minor stakes wins, have come on the main track. Her two recent tries on the turf were not bad, but she was beaten by Adventuring in both. I am looking elsewhere.
Princess Theorem (AE)
Is on the also-eligible list and will only get into the race with a scratch. If she does get in, the daughter of Nyquist will have found a very difficult spot. A distant second last time in a stakes race at Indiana Grand, she looks to be a cut below the main contenders. She is a stakes winner on the grass, but it came against significantly cheaper.
Wait for Nairobi (AE)
Is on the also-eligible list and will only get into the Valley View if two fillies scratch out of the race. If she does get in, she will be a long shot, having not raced since March, and having lost her only two tries on the turf. She is hard to recommend.
How to watch the Valley View Stakes
|Valley View Stakes Race Information|
|Race||Valley View Stakes (Grade 3)|
|When||Friday, October 29 — 5:16pm Eastern time|
|How to Watch||TVG|
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Taken to the races at a very young age, Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing his entire life. Professionally, his work has been published on several leading industry sites. Brian served as the Editor of Horse Racing Nation from 2010-2017, where he still writes a regular column and hosts the popular weekly webcast HorseCenter.
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