Image for Brian Zipse Brian Zipse - October 14, 2022

Dinner Party Stakes Predictions, Picks, Odds (Pimlico)

Dinner Party Stakes Odds and Post Position

Check out our predictions and odds for the 2022 Dinner Party Stakes at Pimlico! We gathered the best odds from TwinsSpires Sportsbook!

PP Horse Odds Jockey Trainer
1 TANGO TANGO TANGO 10/1
BET HERE
T Gaffalione J Sisterson
2 NOVO SOL 6/1
BET HERE
J Alvarado S Joseph Jr
3 SET PIECE 8/5
BET HERE
F Geroux B Cox
4 BEACON HILL 9/2
BET HERE
J Rosario M Matz
5 ENGLISH BEE 6/1
BET HERE
L Saez H G Motion
6 ATONE 5/2
BET HERE
I Ortiz Jr M Maker
7 NATHAN DETROIT 30/1
BET HERE
J Ortiz N Cash

Dinner Party Stakes Predictions and Best Bets

Here are my plays ($50 in total)

$8 Exacta Part Wheel – Beacon Hill and Tango Tango Tango over Atone = $16

$4 Exacta Part Wheel – Beacon Hill and Tango Tango Tango over Set Piece, Nova Sol and English Bee = $24

$5 Exacta Box – Beacon Hill and Tango Tango Tango = $10

If you’re playing only to win, go with my top pick Beacon Hill (9/2)

Have a look at our horse racing calculator! It will help you calculate your winnings!

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Dinner Party Stakes Predictions 2022

Set Piece and Atone, who both ran in the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile at Keeneland last out, will meet again as the two favorites on the morning line among a field of seven entered in Saturday’s Grade 2 Dinner Party Stakes on the Pimlico turf.

Trained by Brad Cox, Set Piece is the 6/5 morning line favorite in the 1 1/16-mile grass race. He won three consecutive stakes races at Churchill Downs last year, including the Grade 2 Wise Dan.

The Juddmonte Farms homebred finished seventh in the Maker’s Mark five weeks ago but was beaten only two lengths in what was the 6-year-old gelding’s seasonal debut.

Meanwhile, Atone finished fourth in the same race, where the son of Into Mischief was beaten only one length for all the money.

A four-time winner on the turf and trained by Mike Maker, he has finished right there in two straight big races since running second in the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale at Gulfstream Park.

The third choice on the morning line in The Dinner Party is the Michael Matz-trained Beacon Hill.

The 5-year-old son of Blame was a good second in a stakes race in New York to finish out last season, and just missed by a nose in his return at Keeneland on April 20.

Dinner Party Stakes Predictions and Race Analysis

Set Piece

This English-bred son of Dansili proved himself a very nice middle-distance turf horse in 2021 with three straight-stakes victories. Clearly the most accomplished horse in the race, he has been rightly tabbed as the morning line choice.

I do see a good reason why he will be defeated for the fourth consecutive time, however. As a confirmed late runner, he does his best running from well behind and is greatly benefited when the early pace is fast, or at least honest.

He will not get that on Saturday, as this is a race that will almost assuredly have a slow early pace. For that reason, I see him as a very vulnerable favorite on the Preakness undercard.

Atone

One of only two horses in the race with tactical speed, this Mike Maker-trained son of Into Mischief looms as a major threat on Saturday. Although he’s yet to win a stakes race, he has proven himself in graded stakes racing with three solid races in a row.

Most recently he was close throughout and finished just a length short of the win in the Maker’s Mark Mile. With even less speed in the Dinner Party, he could easily find himself in the lead.

As one of the favorites, I am not expecting much value on him here, but he is a must-use in the exotics. Still, until he wins one of these, I am holding off on making him a top pick.

Beacon Hill

Trained by Michael Matz, this 5-year-old son of Blame won his only previous start on the turf at Pimlico by a widening five lengths. That victory came last summer in an allowance race and as he has moved up in class, he has been a consistent contender.

After running a good second in the Point of Entry Stakes at Belmont in October to close last season, he returned from a seven-month layoff to run a bang-up second at Keeneland, just missing by a nose.

While this will be his graded stakes debut, I believe that he has already proven himself against good horses and should fit right in with this group. With Joel Rosario again signed on to ride, he is the top pick.

English Bee

A stakes winner over the Pimlico turf three seasons ago, this 6-year-old son of English Channel has found the winner’s circle only once in his last 16 races. That’s certainly not a good sign heading into this Grade 2 affair.

On the other hand, his recent form is good enough to at least consider him, as he has at least been competitive in four consecutive graded stakes races, including finishing just a half-length behind Atone in Fort Lauderdale.

I like others better, but returning to a turf course where he has had success before, I cannot throw him out of this.

Novo Sol

The wildcard of the field, this Brazilian import was Group 1 placed, but only won 2-of-11 in his native land.

Since coming to America, and the barn of Saffie Joseph, Jr. he has turned in a pair of solid efforts, winning an off the turf allowance race, before running a decent third behind the class Gufo in the Grade 2 Pan American going 12 furlongs last time.

Given his proven class, it would come as no surprise if he ran well here, but the significant cutback in the distance in a race with little early pace concerns me. He’s a threat, but not one of my top picks.

Tango Tango Tango

This son of Tourist comes into the Dinner Party off of two straight wins this year and has finished first or second in five out of six career races on the grass. Trained by Jack Sisterson, the Tourist colt is a stakes winner at the distance and is one of the only horses in the field with tactical speed.

Drawn to the rail with Tyler Gaffalione aboard, he should be on or near the lead early in a very moderate pace.

This would be his biggest win to date, but he has beaten some nice horses already in his brief career. Given the very attractive 10/1 morning line odds, he should offer great value in a race in which he has a big shot to win.

Nathan Detroit

The lone outsider in the field earned his second career victory on the turf last out when he rallied on the outside to get up in an allowance race at Laurel Park. Let go at 28/1 that afternoon, he will likely be at similar odds again as he moves way up in class to test the graded stakes waters.

While the last effort gives some hope, there is just enough in his past performances to believe that he has much chance to make it two straight upsets.

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How to Watch the Dinner Party Stakes

Dinner Party Stakes Race Information
What Dinner Party Stakes (Grade 2)
Location Pimlico Race Course
Time Saturday, May 21 — 2:49 pm Eastern time
How to Watch TVG
Purse $250,000

 

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AUTHOR

Brian Zipse

219 Articles

Taken to the races at a very young age, Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing his entire life. Professionally, his work has been published on several leading industry sites. Brian served as the Editor of Horse Racing Nation from 2010-2017, where he still writes a regular column and hosts the popular weekly webcast HorseCenter.

Email: [email protected]

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