ALDS 2019 Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees: Predictions, Odds and Roster Notes

Game Prediction: final score - Yankees 8, Twins 6.

How to Watch Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees

Where: Yankee Stadium, New York City

When: Saturday, October 5thth at 5:05 PM EST

How (TV/Radio): Twins TV/Radio: FS North, WCCO 830 AM. Yankees TV/Radio: YES, WFAN 101.9FM.

Team Notes

New York Yankees

The Yankees have home-field for the first round of the AL Playoffs where they went 57-24 in the regular season, scoring 440 runs in 81 games.

The Yankees have a 13.1% probability to win the World Series according to Baseball-Reference and a 15.9% shot according to Fangraphs.

The Yankees have 2-1 odds to win the AL title and 4-1 to win the 2019 World Series.

For more odds, check out our coverage of “Who Will Win the 2019 World Series?“.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins are playing on the road to start the ALDS where they went 55-26 this season, the best road record in the MLB by a whopping seven games.

The Twins have a 6.0% chance to win the World Series acc. to Baseball-Reference and a 5.7% probability acc. to Fangraphs.

The Twins are 12-1 to win the World Series and 6-1 to win the American League.

Pitcher Notes

New York Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka (11-9, 4.45 ERA)

The 30-year old pitcher from Japan had a rough season for the Yankees as he posted his second-highest ERA (4.45) ever in a season for New York.

  • In his last full start of the season at home, Tanaka went seven innings surrendering just a solo homer in a 9-1 win over the Angels.
  • In September, Tanaka struck out 21 batters in 25 innings. Over his last 57.2 innings, he has whiffed just 43 batters for the Yanks.
  • Tanaka has allowed four homers over his last seven games and four in his last three home starts.

Twins: Kyle Gibson (13-7, 3.76 ERA) or Jake Odorizzi (15-7, 3.51 ERA)

The Twins manager, Rocco Baldelli, hasn’t named a Game 2 starter yet but it should come down to either Gibson or Odorizzi.

  • In his last start, Odorizzi held Detroit to one run over six innings, while posting seven strikeouts.
  • Odorizzi did hold the Yankees scoreless at Yankee Stadium in early May over six innings.
  • Gibson faced the Yankees in July, allowing five earned runs in five innings in a 14-12 loss in Minnesota.

Hitter Notes

New York Yankees

The Yankees have scored less runs at home this season (440) versus on the road (503), but did average 5.8 runs per contest in September.

  • 1B Edwin Encarnacion is 12 for 35 versus Gibson with four homers and 11 RBI.
  • SS Didi Gregorius is 4 for 25 with one double and one triple against Odorizzi.
  • OF Brett Gardner is 6 for 32 versus Odorizzi in his career with one homer and three RBI.

Minnesota Twins

Worth noting is that Minnesota, in their record-breaking home run season as a team, scored 6.14 runs per game on the road, second in the MLB to the Yankees.

  • OF Eddie Rosario is 0 for 3 versus Tanaka with two strikeouts.
  • OF Max Kepler is 1 for 9 against Tanaka with one double and one RBI.
  • DH Nelson Cruz is 3 for 27 with one double against the Yankees’ starter.

Roster Notes

New York Yankees

  • SP C.C. Sabathia did not make the Yankees ALDS playoff roster due to a shoulder injury and could be left out in his final season.
  • SP Luis Severino is slated to pitch Game 3 of the ALDS in Minnesota.
  • RP Dellin Betances’ season is finished after tearing his Achilles tendon.

Minnesota Twins

  • OF Max Kepler is expected to play in Game 1 of the ALDS after dealing with a left rhomboid strain injury.
  • OF Marwin Gonzalez is also expected to be ready for the ALDS after recovering from a right oblique tweak down the stretch for the Twins.
  • INF Luis Arraez looks good for a roster spot after suffering an ankle sprain last Saturday.

Game Predictions Twins vs Yankees

Expect a high scoring game as the Yankees trot out Tanaka who allowed 28 homers on the year as the Twins feature either Gibson (4.84 ERA on the year) or Odorizzi (allowed 9 earned runs in four innings in his last start at Yankee Stadium) in Game 2.

The game will be played in the mid-afternoon, slightly favoring the Yanks as they scored six runs per contest in day games while the Twins scored 5.5 runs per day game.

All of these numbers add up to a wild offensive contest. Expect the Yankees to pull ahead as the Twins burn through a starter early and have to dig into their bullpen.

Game Prediction: final score – Yankees 8, Twins 6.

Game Odds Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees

The latest odds for the ALDS game between the Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees are provided by New Jersey sportsbooks.


888Sport NJ+165-205
Unibet NJ+165-205

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