Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Predictions, Odds & Picks (September 10)
- Second place in NL East on the line this week
- Former Cy Young looks to bounce back
- Marlins look to continue improbable run
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Phillies vs Marlins Odds
|Team||Run Spread||Total||Money Line|
|Philadelphia Phillies||-1.5 +148||O 9 EVEN||-110|
|Miami Marlins||+1.5 -177||U 9 -120||-105|
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Phillies vs Marlins Predictions and Picks
The Phillies are very good to open series as of late, but the Marlins win the majority of the time when they’re the favorite. But Arietta has pitched in big games before so we’re expecting him to handle the pressure. We like Philly’s money line and the under.
Betting record through 9/9/20 (28-22-1)
Trends (Entering Wednesday)
Phillies are 5-0 in last five game ones of a series
Phillies are 5-0 in last five games after an off day
Phillies are 12-4 in last 16 overall
Phillies are 5-2 in last seven road games
Phillies are 7-3 in last 10 games vs. right-handed starter
Phillies are 2-9 in last 11 road games vs. team with a winning record
Over is 5-1-2 in Phillies last eight Thursday games
Over is 3-1-2 in last six Phillies games following a day off
Over is 8-3 in Phillies last 11 games vs. team with a winning record
Over is 4-1 in last five head-to-head meetings in Miami
Marlins are 6-2 in last eight games vs NL East
Marlins are 5-2 in last seven games as a favorite
Marlins are 1-4 in last five home games
Under is 5-1 in Marlins last six home games
Over is 4-1-1 in Marlins last six overall
Under is 17-8 in Marlins last 25 games
How to Watch Phillies vs Marlins
|Phillies vs Marlins Information|
|What||Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins|
|Where||Marlins Park, Miami, FL|
|When||Thursday, September 10, 2020, 6:40 PM EST|
|How to Watch||Fox Sports Florida, MLB.TV|
First of … Seven
The Marlins and Phillies will play their first of seven consecutive games against one another on Thursday evening. I don’t have an advanced stats department to look up the most regular-season games in a row two teams have played against one another, but I have to believe seven will be the new record.
The unusual seven-game set represents more than 30 percent of the remaining games for both teams and with the two in a battle for the second NL East spot and a guaranteed playoff position, this should have a postseason feel.
The two teams come in on very different emotions. The Phillies, who should be rested after an off-day Wednesday, have won 12 of their past 16 contests. The Marlins come off of a 29-9 beatdown from the NL East-leading Braves – one of the worst losses in franchise history.
Even with the lopsided loss, the Marlins – despite all odds – are .500 overall and 5-4 in their last nine games.
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Arietta Up-And-Down Season Needs to End for the Phillies to Have Success
Jake Arietta has either been really good or really bad.
There’s been very little in between, but it’s resulted in is very mediocre numbers, especially for a former Cy Young Award winner. Arietta is 3-4 on the year, with a 5.67 ERA and 1.47 WHIP – both of which would be the worst marks of his career.
However, he comes off the best start of his season, going seven strong, giving up two runs and striking out seven in a 5-3 win over the Mets. It’s ironic because that comes on the heels of the worst start of his career when he gave up seven runs without getting out of the second inning against the Braves.
It was the first time Arietta went seven innings since May 25, 2019.
Arietta’s contract is for 20 million dollars this season – pre-COVID delayed season – and the Phillies are paying for someone who is leading his team to wins, instead of a sub. 500 record.
Can Marlins Continue to Surprise?
If the season ended right now, the Miami Marlins would be in the playoffs. That’s not a sentence anybody expected to be true as we approach mid-September, yet here we are. The fish just won’t go away.
Going into play Wednesday the Marlins weren’t winning because of their bats – they rank in the bottom third of the league in batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, and runs scored. Instead, it was because of their pitching numbers, ranking in the top 12 in the league within quality starts and team ERA.
That took a big hit on Wednesday when they gave up a franchise-worst 29 runs. The good news for Miami is, a 20-run loss counts all the same as a one-run loss and they have a chance to solidify some playoff positioning this upcoming week.
That’s might be easier said than done though, since they’re at home where they’re just 2-9 on the year.
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Tony writes about baseball for WSN.com after recently graduating with his Masters from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. Prior to that, Tony was a local sports reporter for MLive Media Group, based out of Jackson, Michigan where he covered everything from high school to professional sports. He graduated from Michigan State in 2015 with a degree in journalism. During his time there he covered the Michigan State football and men’s basketball teams from 2013-15 and hosted a sports radio show on WDBM 89FM.